Prediction Market Oracle

Resolution is different from forecasting

A prediction market can contain expectations before an event occurs. Its resolution oracle determines an accepted outcome afterward under the market's stated rules. Keep a forecast, a proposed result and a finalized result as separate records.

A market price can reflect participants' expectations, but it is not itself evidence that the underlying event occurred. A forecasting API and a settlement oracle therefore need different answer types and status fields.

Define the event precisely

A question needs a subject, deadline, timezone, qualifying conditions, evidence policy and set of possible outcomes. Explain how cancellations, late publications and corrections are handled. A concise headline should be backed by a complete rule definition.

Test the rule against fictional positive, negative and ambiguous examples. When two careful readers need additional unstated context, improve the rule before connecting it to an irreversible action.

Make disputes and finality visible

Optimistic oracle designs can allow a proposed answer or assertion to be challenged before final acceptance. UMA provides a documented example of this pattern; see the resolution reference. Challenge periods, bonds and escalation rules depend on the selected deployment.

Represent pending, proposed, disputed and finalized states distinctly. An unanswered question should not default to a negative outcome. A challenged result should not be presented as settled merely because a proposal already exists.

Connect the result to the right question

Bind a final answer to the exact question identifier and rule version. Preserve the evidence record and prevent duplicate settlement effects. Plan for invalid or unresolvable questions instead of inventing an outcome to finish the workflow.

Explore Prediction Oracle API for typed response design and Prediction Oracles for the broader meaning of queryable estimates and answers.